DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 12Z MON 10/02 - 06Z TUE 11/02 2003
ISSUED: 10/02 12:01Z
FORECASTER: HAVEN

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA

SYNOPSIS

UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN EUROPE IS AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE TO WAA OVER NW-EUROPE. UPPER LOW OVER BLACK SEA IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST, WITH TRAILING UPPER TROUGH OVER BALKAN VIA SRN-ITALY TO BALEARICS.

DISCUSSION

...SOUTHERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA...
TWO TSTM ACTIVITY AREAS OVER THE MEDITERRANEAN ATTM. ONE SSE OF BALEARICS, ANOTHER OVER EXTREME SRN GREECE AND SEA AREA SW OF IT. THESE AREAS CAN BE EASILY COUPLED TO THE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND TO SFC LOW SW OF GREECE/SFC TROUGH SE OF BALEARICS. LOW INSTABILITY AND LOW SHEAR MEANS THAT SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW WITH THESE SYSTEMS. BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS SW OF BALEARICS, BUT INSTABILITY/UVM SEEMS TO MEAGER TO SUPPORT TSTMS. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

...BRITISH ISLES...
ACTIVE SYSTEM IS ENTERING THE WRN BRITISH ISLES ATTM. BOTH SOUNDINGS AND MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE NO DEEP INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO SUPPORT TSTMS.

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